Iowa Senate Race 2014 - Mia Gadson

Important Points :

• Race to take the place of Tom Harkin, the former democratic senator.
• Republicans are confident about the opportunity of grabbing this seat especially because of the lead they were able to grasp with Joni Ernst in June and her smart campaign about castrating pigs. 
• Bruce Braley, a democrat, not yet adaptive to Iowans and how they live
• It stands that more people care about their farms more than social security and medicare.
• Gender plays a role in who will hold the upcoming seat in the senate.

Sources :

• http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html 
• http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iowa-senate-race-2014-abc-news-14-14/story?id=23881441
• "Squeal" - Youtube Video

Iowa is amongst some of the most republican states in America. Very rarely did Iowa ever elect a democratic senator. Tom Harkin the most recent democratic incumbent lost his seat to Joni Ernst a republican senator and the first female senator in Iowa and won the election by 52.2 percent.

Bruce Braley her opponent stood no chance against her due to his lack of knowledge on Iowans and how they operate. Also Joni Ernst had a capturing campaign called "Squeal." Squeal was covering the topic of the castrating of pigs which connects to the people living in Iowa. Iowans don't really have an immense care on situations such as Social Security or Medicare.

Questions

• Why would someone run for a seat, in this case Bruce Baley, not knowing much on the people your going to represent?
• Why in the past have Iowans elected Democrats if they are such a Republican state? 

Runoff election in Louisiana, 2014

     This is something you don't hear every day. (At  least I don't.) In the race in Louisiana for Senate, they have had to make a runoff race that will be held December 6th. From having 6 candidates running, only two will actually run the runoff race this coming month. For one it is the incumbent (D) Mary Landrieu, who got 41.1%, against (R) Bill Cassidy, who got 41%. None of these two got the necessary over 50% and for that they will have to have a runoff. 

     Louisiana tends to be very reliably Republican if the 2008 and 2012 elections are anything to go by as they voted a little over 50% leaning towards the Republican Candidates vs current President Obama. 

     Landrieu is running for her fourth term and it is worth to note that she has never won a single campaign with no more than 53%. Democrats also backed off the ads since Republicans already have control and it won't do any harm if she wins or not since it is almost clear that Democrats will struggle to get things done with Republicans running. 

According to ABC News' "14 for 14" Project, the race for Governor of Wisconsin is a big race to watch.  It is not clearly a blue state or a red state.  Wisconsin claims a Democrat Senator (Tammy Baldwin) and a Republican Senator (Ron Johnson). There are also three U.S. Representatives for each of these two major parties.  Congressional representation is evenly split between red and blue. But, in the two most recent presidential elections, Wisconsin's electoral votes went to the Democrats and Barack Obama.  In fact, the last time Wisconsin's electoral votes went to a Republican candidate was for Ronald Reagan in 1984.

The incumbent Scott Walker is seeking re-election.  ABC News states that, "Scott Walker is the only governor in American history to win a gubernatorial recall election, and he's governed as a budget-cutting, union-breaking conservative in a purple state." 

Democrat Mary Burke, is running against the incumbent, Governor Walker.  This election displays how divided the political culture remains in Wisconsin; especially after the protests against Walker throughout his first term and his ability to battle through them and remain in office.

As NPR's Melissa Block shows that Mary Burke is not afraid of the Obama Effect and is campaigning with the President's help in Wisconsin cities like Madison and Milwaukee.  It's kind of funny because while other Democrats actively avoid association with the President during the campaign season, Mary Burke realized that the President can help her game in African-American districts that turned out for Obama in the past. 

The key issue of this race connects back to Governor Walker's controversial signing of anti-union legislation that limited the collective bargaining rights of union members in the states.  Also, political pundits are watching this race closely.  If Walker can win again in a purple state, it shows potential for him as a Republican candidate in the 2016 presidential election.

According to Real Clear Politics, there is no clear leader in this race.  While Governor Walker held a strong lead in the polls back in May, they are in a dead heat.

Not only will we find out Wisconsin's future governor on Election Day, we will also find out about Walker's chances of throwing his hat into the ring in 2016.

SOURCES:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wisconsin-governor-race-2014-abc-news-14-14/story?id=22270185

http://www.270towin.com/states/Wisconsin

http://www.npr.org/2014/10/28/359632675/in-wisconsin-election-gov-scott-walker-fights-to-hold-on

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/wi/wisconsin_governor_walker_vs_burke-4099.html

Arkansas Race

Arkansas is complicated politically, they have mostly elected Democrats to the senate, but all the races in the past have been fairly close. The state is a purple state that swings closely one way or the other. The incumbent in this race is Senator Mark Pryor D. and he is running against Rep. Tom Cotton. In addition Pryor's father David Pryor was Arkansas's senator from 1978-1996, but Cotton is backed by not just the GOP, but also the Tea Party, he is a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan and has a couple of Harvard degrees. Making him a very dangerous opponent.

Winning this race would mean a third term for Pryor, but it's going to be very tough for Pryor because of Obama's low ratings on his healthcare reform and overall. This could really be the edge that Cotton needs to split the state to his side. This race is so important because Democrats in the South may be extinct after this election.

The four biggest issues in this Senate race are Pryor's support for Obama and the healthcare reform, Cotton's voting record, seniors issues, and the candidates personalities. Of the first two issues each candidate has managed to make the other look like a supporter of Obama or an extremist, Pryor is winning with his personality, and Cotton is more popular in the senior issues.

According to the polls this is really anyone's race, but this elections impact could b very great. If Cotton wins there will be one less Democrat in the South which seems to be an increasing trend. If Pryor wins then the Democrats have one more person in the Senate decreasing the chances of the Republicans taking the senate.

Overview
Key Issues

Incumbent

• Jeanne Shaheen - D (NH), Rerunning, 6 year term.
• Vote: 48.4%

Challenger

• Scott Brown - R (NH) Running for senator, used to be senator for Massachusetts, 2 year term. He is against Obamacare but trying to use his NH roots to gain voters.

• Vote: 45.9%

Outlook

• Shaheen vs Brown
• This race may be the most expensive race NH has experienced. Shaheen is expected to win. Brown was the former senator for Massachusetts (MA) and is now running for NH senator. He is known as a carpetbagger, a candidate who runs somewhere where they have no local connections. He lost in MA but may win NH.

The incumbent in this race is Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. She is rerunning as senator for New Hampshire (NH).  Her challenger is Republican Scott Brown, former senator of Massachusetts (MA). Whoever wins this means they are helping not only the state but also gaining seats for their party in senate. New Hampshire is a blue state meaning Shaheen is more likely to win but with Brown using his New Hampshire roots to reel people in it can change. According to polls, Shaheen is in the lead with 48.4% votes. Brown has 45.9%.

Source:

• http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hampshire-senate-race-2014-abc-news-14-14/story?id=22992314
• http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nh/new_hampshire_senate_brown_vs_shaheen-3894.html

Incumbent

• Senator Pat Roberts - R, Served in Senate since 1997. Seeking fourth term
• Vote: 41.8%

Challenger

• Greg Orman - I
• Vote: 42.5%

Outlook

• Kansas hasn’t voted for a democrat since before WW2. They don’t plan on doing so but they may vote for an independent party. Nominee Chad Taylor, a democrat, backed out of the race in order to help Greg Orman. They still are a red state but that doesn’t mean they will vote for a republican. So far Orman, Independent, is in the lead with 42.5%. Pat Roberts, our incumbent who is a republican,  is seeking his fourth term. His votes are at 41.8%. Times in Kansas can be changing now if Orman wins. Like the other article seats in senate may rise or fall depending on who wins here.

Source

• http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/kansas-senate-race-2014-abc-news-14-14/story?id=25253115
• http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ks/kansas_senate_roberts_vs_orman-5216.html
• http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/oct/30/greg-orman-vs-pat-roberts-senate-race-reflects-kan/
• http://www.electionprojection.com/2014-elections/kansas-senate-election.php
• http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/oct/30/greg-orman-vs-pat-roberts-senate-race-reflects-kan/

Texas Governor Race 2014

ABC News' "14 for 14" claims that Texas is a state to watch during for 2014's mid term elections and it's clear why. With the longest reigning Texas governor, Rick Perry, finally stepping down from his position, both Abbot and Davis are fighting for that open seat. With no incumbent running, the victor of this race is less clear than others. Texas is without a doubt an overall  conservative, and republican state, hence why it has a status of being red. They haven't elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards back in 1990. With that in mind, most would expect Republican candidate, Attorney General Greg Abbot, is a shoe in for the position. However, Wendy Davis is a Democratic icon that's a force to be reckoned with.

Wendy Davis is no stranger to advocating for abortion rights. Her 11-hour filibuster on an anti-abortion bill was truly a noteworthy and remarkable notion that has caught the attention of her public. Not to mention she has shared her own personal stories with abortion making her a relatable candidate in this election. Her passion in this issue could win many women votes. 

Davis' Republican counter part has also had his share of strongly fighting for what he wanted. Abbot clearly identified himself as a conservative when he fought the Supreme Court to keep the Ten Commandments on the state capitol complex. This action and his ideals should win him the Christian vote. 

Voter turnout for the state of Texas is truly the deciding factor in this election. With Texas' Republican consistency Abbot is sure to win. He does in fact have a 17% voter lead on Davis. However, the state's growing numbers in Hispanic and young voters could make this a close race. Davis herself said, "It's not that Texas is a deeply red state; it's that it's a chronically low-vote-participation state." Maybe this is the start of Texas furthering itself from being a red state?

SOURCES:

1. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/texas-governor-race-2014-abc-news-14-14/story?id=22270229
2. http://www.npr.org/2014/09/13/347958028/wendy-davis-tells-of-her-own-difficult-abortions-in-forgetting
3. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/tx/texas_governor_abbott_vs_davis-3596.html

The Bluegrass State, Kentucky: Mitch McConnell vs Alison Grimes

ABC News, in its “14 for 14” Project, proclaims that “The Kentucky Senate race will be the most watched 2014 contest of them all…” The reason for the excitement? Incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell has been in office for Kentucky since 1984—30 years! Kentucky, known by its nickname “The Bluegrass State,” has a very confusing political climate. Most voters identify themselves as Democrats; however, Republican candidates are most often chosen, which is how McConnell has stayed in office for so long. Therefore, the fact that a Democrat is challenging the long-standing Senator is a huge political focus. The fact that the Democrat was LEADING in some polls is an even bigger political focus. The mentioned Democratic challenger is named Alison Grimes, and is aiming for the seat of the previously-mentioned incumbent Mitch McConnell.

Mitch McConnell being a long-standing Senator isn’t the only reason this race is the hottest out there. In the confusing political climate that is the Bluegrass State, many factors will influence the upcoming election. For example, many believe that McConnell has had his fill of being Senator, and that 30 years in Congress is more than enough for one person. Also, through tv ads, Grimes has been attempting to attract more conservative Democrats. However, McConnell appeals to older citizens more, and older citizens are more likely to vote. Also, at one point, it appeared that Grimes was leading. Now, Mitch McConnell has stepped up his game, and is leading in all polls.

The major issues in this race aren’t exactly issues. Voters are weighing between two outcomes: having McConnell at least another 6 years OR electing Grimes, who voters believe will act as Obama believes she should. This, in fact, ties back to the “mid-term effect” perfectly: because of Obama’s unpopularity and Grimes’s affiliation with him, people are less likely to vote for her. Therefore, Grimes has been trying make distance between herself and President Obama. Also, it’s a question of money: McConnell has raised $21 million for his campaign, while Grimes has raised $8 million. This is factor that voters will either take as good or bad.

According to the most recent polls, Incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell will win this race. He is currently about 6% ahead of Alison Grimes in the poll. If McConnell stays in office and the Senate gains at least 6 Republican seats, then McConnell will become the official Senate majority leader. Republicans having control of the Senate is a huge deal because they already have control of the House of Representatives. Republicans would completely control Congress, causing major problems between the legislative branch and President Obama. Looking further, if a Republican president is elected and their numbers in Congress don’t diminish, both the legislative and executive branches will be under Republican control. Therefore, it is very likely that, in the farther future, the Republicans will become unpopular and the Democrats will take over, and the cycle will go on and on. However, that’s just speculation.

Sources:
ABC News

Courier Journal
Real Clear Politics
Basic Info About Kentucky